By Oliver Taylor
The championship race, or distinct lack thereof, is a main source of many fans’ frustration with the current state of Formula One.
After the Portuguese Grand Prix, Valtteri Bottas sits 77 points behind his Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton in the drivers’ championship race.
Bottas can challenge Hamilton on a race weekend. He has secured pole position three times and has finished above the Brit in three races this season.
However, Bottas is not a threat to the championship. He has not been since joining Mercedes in 2017. The epic battles between Hamilton and former teammate Nico Rosberg are a distant memory.
| Gap in championship points between Hamilton and Rosberg (2013-2016) | Gap in championship points between Hamilton and Bottas (2017-2020) |
| 2013 Hamilton: 189 points Rosberg: 171 points Gap: 18 | 2017 Hamilton: 363 points Bottas: 305 points Gap: 58 |
| 2014 Hamilton: 384 points Rosberg: 317 points Gap: 67 | 2018 Hamilton: 408 points Bottas: 247 points Gap: 161 |
| 2015 Hamilton: 381 points Rosberg: 322 points Gap: 59 | 2019 Hamilton: 413 points Bottas: 326 points Gap: 87 |
| 2016 Hamilton: 380 points Rosberg: 385 points Gap: 5 | 2020* (five races remain) Hamilton: 230 points Bottas: 161 points Gap: 77 |
The lack of a long-term commitment between Bottas and Mercedes is interesting. Since joining the team, Bottas has only signed a series of one-year contracts.
With the impending regulation changes in 2022, expected to make the grid much more competitive, one has to wonder if Bottas would leave Mercedes to challenge for the drivers’ championship as the number one driver elsewhere.
If Bottas does leave, Esteban Ocon could be a logical replacement.
Ocon is a former member of Mercedes’ junior driver programme and represented by Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff. He was rumoured to replace Bottas prior to this season but ended up signing a two-year deal with Renault.
Ocon has not exactly blossomed with Renault as Wolff might have hoped, but his pace behind teammate Daniel Ricciardo might not be as far off as some realise.
Ricciardo and Ocon have been eliminated in the same qualifying session eight times this year. Across those sessions, minus the Tuscan Grand Prix where Ocon did not set a Q3 time, Ocon is only 0.142 seconds behind Ricciardo on average.
| Race week | Ricciardo’s time | Ocon differential |
| Styrian Grand Prix (Q3) | 1:21.192 | -0.270 seconds |
| Hungarian Grand Prix (Q2) | 1:15.661 | +0.081 seconds |
| British Grand Prix (Q3) | 1:26.009 | +0.200 seconds |
| Spanish Grand Prix (Q2) | 1:17.198 | +0.369 seconds |
| Belgian Grand Prix (Q3) | 1:42.061 | +0.335 seconds |
| Russian Grand Prix (Q3) | 1:32.364 | +0.260 seconds |
| Eifel Grand Prix (Q3) | 1:26.223 | +0.019 seconds |
Applying to Ocon’s average +0.142 seconds differential to Hamilton’s final Q3 lap times this season is good enough for P2 – by a very cozy margin – in every race except the Eifel Grand Prix.
| Hamilton’s final Q3 time | Ocon’s added differential (+0.142) | +/- to Bottas |
| 1:02.951 | 1:03.093 (P2) -0.384 seconds ahead of P3 | +0.154 seconds -1 grid position change (P1) |
| 1:19.273 | 1:19.415 (P2) -1.256 seconds ahead of P3 | -1.286 seconds +2 grid position change (P4) |
| 1:13.447 | 1:13.589 (P2) -0.788 seconds ahead of P3 | +0.035 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
| 1:24.303 | 1:24.445 (P2) -0.880 seconds ahead of P3 | -0.171 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
| 1:25.217 | 1:25.359 (P2) -0.723 seconds ahead of P3 | +0.205 seconds -1 grid position change (P1) |
| 1:15.584 | 1:15.726 (P2) -0.566 seconds ahead of P3 | +0.083 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
| 1:41.252 | 1:41.394 (P2) -0.384 seconds ahead of P3 | -0.369 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
| 1:18.887 | 1:19.029 (P2) -0.666 seconds ahead of P3 | +0.073 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
| 1:15.144 | 1:15.286 (P2) -0.223 seconds ahead of P3 | +0.083 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
| 1:31.304 | 1:31.446 (P2) -0.421 seconds ahead of P3 | -0.510 seconds +1 grid position change (P3) |
| 1:25.525 | 1:25.667 (P3) +0.105 seconds behind P2 | +0.398 seconds -2 grid position change (P1) |
| 1:16.652 | 1:16.794 (P2) -0.110 seconds ahead of P2 | +0.04 seconds 0 grid position change (P2) |
Granted, this is hardly a perfect science. As mentioned before, Ocon and Ricciardo have been eliminated in the same qualifying session eight times. The other four occasions – the Austrian Grand Prix, 70th Anniversary Grand Prix, Italian Grand Prix and Portuguese Grand Prix – Ocon failed to get out of Q2 while Ricciardo advanced.
If Bottas does leave, Mercedes will undoubtably want another second driver who can challenge, but not threaten, Hamilton. Ocon has proved his capability to serve that role with Ricciardo at Renault.
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